👀 ARB Trading Group acquires equity stake in Raen Trading

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! Another week in the books and its time to do it all over again, so lets get into it.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

ARB Trading Group has taken a 25% equity stake in Raen Trading. Raen is built and run by traders and risk managers from the institutional world, with a mission to identify exceptional trading talent from within institutions, while also creating a path for outstanding retail traders to manage institutional capital.

ARB operates across proprietary trading, asset and fund management, market making, and broker-dealing. This strategic partnership marks a major step forward for Raen, giving them the backing to expand their operations and create more opportunities for their traders.

This is a significant development and an exciting moment for any trader watching the space. I’ll be following closely.

You can read all about the partnership via the link below:

From Payout Junction, here are the firms who paid out the most over the last 7 days 🏆️.

🔥 Monitor prop firm payouts LIVE on Payout Junction - https://payoutjunction.com.

🕜 Red Folder News

Here are this week’s red folder news events. Plenty of US jobs data scattered throughout the week, with J Powell speaking on Tuesday. Inflation looks contained and the Fed seems to be leaning toward easing, so we’re probably not in for any major surprises, but you never know!

📈 The Macro View

Back to All-Time Highs

Never in doubt. The S&P 500 just hit all-time highs again. It was down -21% less than 3 months ago. Here's what the S&P500 did after similar V-shaped rallies. Short answer: up 100% of the time on a 3-month horizon (+6.8%)

Just the start for the S&P 500?

We have hit all-time-highs 4 times in 2025. As a point of reference, we hit all-time-highs 57 times in 2024. Could be just getting started.

S&P 500 Seasonality

We are about to enter July, the best month of the year for the S&P500. Up on average 2.5% on a 20 year lookback.

Positioning Neutral

Incredibly, despite the massive rally off the lows, positioning on Goldman Sachs Prime Book is Neutral. As we have been tracking since the bounce, many institutions have been sitting on the sidelines watching as retail has piled in week after week lifting the indices. As a result, positioning has only now ticked up to neutral, so things could get lively should FOMO kick in.

Very poor market breadth

The conditions for a risk-on rally are definitely in place, but broadly speaking, the market is still being held up by the Magnificent 7 stocks. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 aren’t contributing much. So if the Mag 7 reverses, the indices will too, as well as the risk-on sentiment. Always keep an open mind.

Ok guys that’s it for this week, stay safe out there!

Kieran

📚 Further Reading

What is the optimal way to deal with trailing max loss limits in prop firm challenges? This week’s question to PerplexityAI includes:

• Trailing Drawdown Mechanics

• Strategic Risk Management

• Trading Style Adaptation

• Psychological Resilience

Click the link below!

Please do me a favour and share this with other traders, your communities and on social media. I’d greatly appreciate it, thanks! 🙂