👀 Funded Engineer Closing down, Welcome back to Greed, The 4-year Bitcoin cycle

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! Well that was a crazy weekend aye. It is a timely reminder of just how close we are to chaos at any given moment, and how the world can change in an instant. Crazy! Anyway, let’s let into it.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

Funded Engineer is closing down. Unfortunately one of the industry’s favorite firms is shutting down. They have not paid out for 1.5 months and have been actively seeking an investor to save them, however it didn’t happen.

It is of course not a shock to see them go, as a huge backlog of payouts is really not an attractive proposition for investors, so it would have been very high-risk. They certainly tried their best, maintained good communication with their traders, and didn’t go down without a fight, so I will remember them fondly.

🔥 Follow me on X for more frequent prop firm commentary -https://twitter.com/kierangohil_

🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. Powell is speaking again later today, US retail Sales on Tuesday and US Unemployment numbers on Thursday are the key events to watch out for.

📈 The Macro View

Inflows into everything. Welcome back to Greed.

Another week when everything was bought. "In the week ended 10 July, bond funds saw US$12.4bn of inflows and equity funds US$10.2bn. US funds received US$5.1bn net. Global funds logged US$2.9bn of inflows." (EPFR).

Only just ticking into greed territory though, so still a long way from a sell signal.

Top 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500.

They make up 35% of the index. A historically high concentration, offering less diversification, higher risk, and greater volatility. Know the game you are playing, and plan your risk accordingly.

Nasdaq 100 after major technological releases.

Here’s an abstract but interesting chart from Bespoke Research, showing the current AI bull run vs other major technology releases throughout history. Basically, the current bull run is big, but not quite Netscape big….. yet.

The 4-year Bitcoin cycle

Interesting analysis from Bitwise, showing the 4-year cycles of Bitcoin. It suggests 2 big years ahead for BTC, followed by a +50% correction in 2026. As with all crypto research the sample size is too small to draw huge conviction from, however, whilst the global market regime remains “Risk-on”, long Bitcoin will always be an interesting proposition. As ever, not a recommendation, DYOR

OK guys, that’s it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the newsletter, stay safe out there and i’ll speak to you next Monday!

Kieran