👀 Futures Market Chaos, Santa Rally or Bull Trap?

Hi guys, it’s Kieran. Another week is upon us and the markets are open, so lets get into it.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

Some post-Thanksgiving chaos ensued on Friday as the CME had to halt markets due to an infrastructure issue. This meant that the futures markets did not open as expected on Friday and stayed down for most of the day. All prop firms were of course affected by this which was not ideal particularly in the middle of Black Friday sales and a holiday period where most firms had skeleton staffing. Thankfully aside the outage, traders accounts were largely unaffected, so once the markets reopened it was back to business a usual.

From Payout Junction, here are the firms who paid out the most over the last 7 days 🏆️.

🔥 Monitor prop firm payouts LIVE on Payout Junction - https://payoutjunction.com.

🕜 Red Folder News

Here are this week’s red folder news events. A relatively light week for data. ADP Non-Farm employment on Wednesday and the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation on Friday are the biggest events of the week.

📈 The Macro View

The bounce-back week

What a week for equity markets. 5 out of 5 green days for the S&P500. Contrarians who got long at very extreme fear levels got paid with barely a pullback. Now the games begin, as those who missed the move start to chase. Despite this level of fear, we are only 1% away from all-time highs again. Can’t keep these markets down.

Many dumped their tech stocks right at the lows.. as usual

Per Bank of America, biggest tech outflows since 2021. This is the type of fuel the market needs to run the highs.

Start of the Santa Rally

This rosy outlook of course feels like the annual December equities rally is now going to go into full swing. It’s rarely that easy, but with so many sitting on the sidelines in a state of fear, it would not be surprising to see a melt-up from here.

Or is this just a bull trap?

Before you get too excited, a great chart from @great_manis on X which highlights the fact that the current bounce looks remarkably similar to previous market tops. A timely reminder to always keep an open mind.

OK guys that it from me, have a great week!

Kieran

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