👀 Introducing my new project 'Payout Junction', Markets Red!? US Election betting

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! Another week is upon us and the markets are open. Plenty going on, let’s get straight into it.

Firstly, I’d like to introduce my latest project Payout Junction! We track prop firm’s payouts via the blockchain and provide up to the minute payout analytics. We launched it last week and the reception has been amazing! Going forward I’ll include some interesting findings in the newsletter each week, and keep you updated on our progress. You can check out our site here https://payoutjunction.com/. Make sure to follow us on X as well! https://x.com/payoutjunction

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

Some great news coming out of MyFundedFX. They have decided to remove their Consistency rule from all account types which was particularly difficult for Swing traders to navigate. I have a funded account with them and am a swing trader myself, so this is fantastic news!

In other news, Funded Peaks are clearing their payout backlog and making progress getting back to business as usual. They have taken on a new investor, who is also now CEO, and they are working hard to get back up to speed again.

Finally, anyone trading on cTrader last week will have noticed significant downtime across all firms as they did some strangely timed mid-week ‘maintenance’. It lasted a few hours with most firms seemingly caught by surprise. Never a dull moment 😂 

🔥 Follow me on X for more frequent prop firm commentary -https://twitter.com/kierangohil_

🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. The PCE index number on Friday is the key event to look out for, as this is the Fed’s favored gauge on inflation. They are almost certain to cut rates in September barring anything unexpected. Also Mag 7 Earnings kick off this week with Tesla and Alphabet being the first of the 7 to report. Stay on your toes for any surprises, particularly if you are trading the Nasdaq100 😁 

📈 The Macro View

A pullback or the start of a reversal?

A rare down week in the S&P 500. Haven’t seen one of these since May! 😄So what’s going on? Well, it appears that this is simply ‘sector rotation’ rather than any panic selling. Money is going out of the Mega-caps and into Small-caps.

Over the last week, almost $10 billion flowed into US small-cap funds. This is the second largest weekly inflows into small caps ever.

Fear levels increased, but still far below recent sell-offs

The VIX and VVIX (options on the VIX) were up this week, but closed at levels significantly below the last three spikes. The VIX is where the big books hedge, so fear shows up quickly here. For now, they appear not overly concerned about a continued market sell-off.

High index concentration is associated with trouble

As I have noted many times before, a highly concentrated equity market is often a recipe for disaster. Recession risk remains high historically speaking. Although it does not feel that way, markets can turn on a dime and a surprising data release can shift the narrative dramatically. Always keep an open mind.

US Election Betting

Trump still leading by a mile, but there has been a small down-tick. Let’s see how events unfold, but a Republican sweep is still the most likely outcome. Will continue to monitor..

OK guys, that’s it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the newsletter. Remember to check out Payout Junction https://payoutjunction.com and Follow us on X https://x.com/payoutjunction. Stay safe out there and i’ll speak to you next Monday!

Kieran