👀 Nvidia bull trap, Tech Flows & Bad Breadth, Payout Tuesdays

Hey guys, it’s Kieran! I hope that you had a great weekend and are looking forward to a busy week in the markets. Last week ended with a decidedly ‘risk-off’ tone, so keep an open mind this week as we traverse a very busy economic calendar.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

Industry wise, it was a relatively quiet week for the major firms. The most notable news was that one of the biggest firms, Funding Pips has introduced a new concept of “Payday Tuesday”, meaning they will process all payouts on a weekly schedule each Tuesday rather than the current ‘every 14 days from the first trade on your funded account’ schedule. The great thing about this is if you make profits on a Tuesday you can actually request payout on the same day.

This is an interesting concept and moves us one step closer to the inevitable same day payout model that we are slowly moving towards. The main criticism that I saw in relation to the FundingPips announcement was that although you can request your payout every Tuesday, they still have a processing time of 24-48 hours, so it is not quite accurate to say “same day payouts”, although they have clarified that they are aiming to process all payouts with 24 hours which is still a good step forward.

I am not yet funded with FundingPips, although I am on phase 2 so fingers crossed that soon i’ll be able to test this new payout model myself 🙂 

Follow my journey on X -https://twitter.com/kierangohil_

🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. It’s a very busy week of economic releases across a multitude of countries and currencies, as well an ECB meeting and subsequent interest rate announcement, so be careful if you are trading funded accounts with firms that have news restrictions.

📈 The Macro View

Goldman Sachs Positioning indicator is still ‘Slightly Stretched’. Despite a risk-off week, a crazy 30 minute end-of-session rally on Friday, retraced most of the pull back in stocks and saved the week. Big players were not shaken out and remain long with overall positioning Streched, but not at an extreme level yet.

Year to date Flows all going into tech. Not a huge surprise but almost all flows into equities this year have been into technology, with outflows in all other sectors except Industrials. The AI narrative is still the dominant force.

US stock market “breadth” is breathtakingly bad. With almost all flows going into tech, stocks outside of this sector have been unloved to such an extent that we are approaching the 2008 GFC lows in the ratio of S&P500 v ‘Equal Weight S&P500’. At that time, this level represented a generational opportunity to buy stocks. Of course a very different backdrop this time, but keep an open mind.

Ndvida showing all the signs of a bull-trap. One for classical technical analysts. The current Ndvida breakout is taking place in the context of a major negative divergence in the RSI, typically a short signal.

Another crazy Nvidia stat is that their market cap per employee is now $100 Million 🤯 Sustainable?

🏆 Poll

Thanks so much for taking part in last week’s poll! The results showed that readers are overwhelmingly happy the content in the newsletter. THANK YOU to everyone who voted and to those that sent personal feedback to me as well. It is greatly appreciated and helps make this newsletter even better.

This week let’s have a more market specific poll. With the current TECH/AI/NVIDIA rally in mind:

OK guys, I hope you enjoyed this week’s newsletter, stay safe out there and i’ll speak to you next Monday!

Kieran

🔥 Follow me on X (Twitter)

Follow my journey on X https://twitter.com/kierangohil_