👀 Prediction Market Prop Firms have arrived

Hi everyone, another week in the books and the markets are open so let’s get into it.

A notable new trend has emerged in the industry. Prediction markets, which have taken the world by storm over the past 12 months, are now taking hold in props too.

Maven who are a well established CFD firm, launched a new prediction markets model.

And it now appears multiple firms built solely around the prediction markets are sprouting up. PolyFundr which appears to be built around Polymarket has emerged, however it’s not clear whether this is an official partnership (I don’t think so) or they are just plugged into their public API.

And another one..

Interesting trend, will be keeping a close eye on it.

📢 Firm Announcements

• Tradeify announced the return of the Grand Cup, with $1m worth of prizes.

• FundedNext re enabled weekend holding across Stellar 1 Step, 2 Step, and Lite funded accounts. Trades will no longer be auto closed at Friday market close.

• FundedNext launched new Clarity Cards inside the dashboard, giving traders real time tracking of rule violations and easing several automatic penalty rules.

• Funded Trader Markets launched unlimited crypto withdrawals, removing payout caps and additional verification requirements for crypto payouts.

• Funded Futures Family confirmed work on an automated payout and flagging system designed to reduce payout denials.

• Take Profit Trader removed the automatic account failure tied to the old 5PM rule, easing one of the most complained about restrictions.

• BrightFunded introduced a new Bright Challenge with lower targets and more flexible drawdown conditions.

• See all firm updates on X → x.com/promojunction

• Set alerts for your favourite firms → promojunction.io.

Here are the firms who paid out the most over the last 7 days 🏆️.

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🕜 Red Folder News

Here are this week’s red folder news events. Inflation in focus this week with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. Inflation expectations are creeping up due to events in the Middle East which in turn is keeping rate cuts off the table for now.

📈 Markets

Nasdaq overshooting big time

What a crazy week in the equity markets. The Nasdaq in particular was trading parabolic right into the close on Friday. Now trading above it’s 2023 channel.

Strange Fear and Greed Index

Despite the rally, the Fear and Greed index actually ticked down last week. No one has been able to chase the equities rally yet because there hasn’t been a dip to buy. First dip we do get is going to be interesting! One to watch this week.

Bubble?

S&P500 concentration historically peaks near the top of major bubbles. AI stocks are of course the ones driving this rally. How much concentration is too much concentration? Well, typically once we hit 40%, we are very much in high risk territory. So it is of note that the Current AI stocks concentration in the S&P500 just hit 40%. Railroads bubble at the turn of the century topped out at 63% though, so could have plenty more room to run.

The 1997 analogue

Long time readers will know that I love these historical analogues, and they actually play out pretty frequently. This one is S&P500 2026 performance plotted over 1997. If the analogue is to play out, this rally is only just getting started and we are not even half way to the top yet 🙂 Let’s see how this one goes.

OK you’re all caught up, have a good week!

Kieran

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