👀 The Contrarian Buy, Gold at Multi-decade extremes, The Bitcoin long

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! The new year is well and truly off and running, and Trump is only 1 week away from entering the White House, so time to lock back-in and get yourself well positioned for 2025. Let’s get caught up.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

Blue Guardian are the latest firm to launch an Instant Funding program. Key rules are: 5 minimum profitable days (0.5%), 20% consistency, and you cannot have total open losses of over 1% at any time or all positions will be auto closed (soft breach). In short, it’s very difficult, however it is instant funding, and it’s pretty well priced, so it is temping to try 😁 

From Payout Junction, here are the firms who have paid out the most over the last 7 days 🏆️.

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🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. US CPI Inflation number is the key event to watch out for this week. Interest rates are rapidly breaking-out higher which is causing a major drag on all risk-assets, so this data point on Wednesday is going to be critical for all markets.

📈 The Macro View

We are almost at Extreme Fear

The Fear & Greed Index is almost in ‘extreme’ territory. This historically is a contrarian buy signal for the S&P500.

Positioning resetting nicely

Positioning on Goldman Sach’s prime book is no longer ‘stretched’. A couple more down weeks for the S&P500 and we could be back to neutral. Much safer adding longs at these levels.

The Bitcoin long continues to grow

Bitcoin is currently 14% off it’s high and the dip is being well and truly bough. Barely a down tick in newly opened longs. No fear.

Gold at multi-decade extremes

With interest rates in focus this week, and gold highly correlated, it’s of note that we are are trading at extremely high levels (relative to it’s 200DMA). This doesn’t mean we can’t go higher. In fact, there have been numerous spikes above this valuation throughout history, so remember anything can happen and keep an eye on this market post CPI this week.

OK guys that’s it for this week. Lot’s going on in the markets already this year and Trump inauguration is next Monday, make sure that you are locked-in, have a plan and put processes in place so that you stick to your plan! See ya next week!

Kieran

If you would like to Follow my personal trading journey, you can do so on X here > https://x.com/kierangohil_

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