👀 The 'My Forex Funds' Fraud Case Is Falling Apart

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! Lots going on, in and outside of markets, so lets dive in.

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

The CFTC’s 2023 fraud case against one of the original forex prop firm giants, My Forex Funds, may be falling apart as the new US administration has placed four attorneys and one investigator on administrative leave amid allegations of misconduct in the fraud case. The accusations claim:

“CFTC enforcement attorneys and management engaged in numerous instances of wilful and bad faith misconduct, including making false statements to the court.”

The CFTC originally charged My Forex Funds and its CEO, Murtuza Kazmi, with fraud in August 2023. The regulator alleges the firm collected at least $310 million in fees from its prop trading operations, with over 135,000 customers between November 2021 and the platform’s eventual shutdown.

These actions look to be the beginning of the end of this saga. Hopefully we get a clear resolution. Although this action does not infer anything about the acceptance of the forex prop’s business model in the US, it will likely raise the bar for future enforcement action against industry participants.

From Payout Junction, here are the firms who paid out the most over the last 7 days 🏆️.

🔥 Monitor prop firm payouts LIVE on Payout Junction - https://payoutjunction.com.

🕜 Red Folder News

Here are this week’s red folder news events. US CPI on Tuesday and US PPI on Thursday will be the biggest news events of the week. J Powell is speaking after the PPI release on Thursday.

📈 The Macro View

Finally back to Greed

What a difference a month makes. With US/China deal more or less done, Ukraine/Russia possibly meeting this week, and tech earnings coming in strong, it now “feels safe” to re-enter the market. However, when the market “feels safe” its usually the worse time to enter, as gains rarely come easy. 😁 

S&P 500 Positioning still very light

S&P500 futures are up 3% this morning already on US/China trade deal news. It’s tough buying in at the top of such a spike, but zooming out, overall equity positioning on Goldman Sachs prime book is very light, and has lots of room to run should institutions start entering the market again.

Container ships to the US have fallen after a large ramp in April

Lots of talk about the lag effects of the trade tensions between China and the US. The hard data we have seen is all backwards looking, pre-tariffs. April inflation numbers coming this week. Lots of fluctuating variables to take into consideration. Either way, China/US container trade is still at 2024 levels, so not catastrophic.

2025 vs the 90’s S&P500

Here’s a fun market analogy to end on. The 1996-2000 period was the run up to the tech crash of 2000. The S&P 500 is currently tracking this trajectory with a 97% correlation. If the analogy is to play out, the bottom is in, and we run much higher over the next 12 months. These are just for fun, but i’ll be tracking this to see how it plays out 😀 

OK guys that’s it for this week. Stay safe out there and i’ll see you next week!

Kieran