👀 Trump & the Dollar, Metals making a comeback, Nvidia v Bitcoin

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! Another week is upon us. The UK election is out of the way, the French election is taking an unexpected turn, and the markets are open, so let’s get ourselves prepared for the week ahead:

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

MyFundedFX introduces new 50% Consistency rule saying that no more than 50% of your profits can be generated from a single trading day in the funded stage. This is unfortunate, particularly for swing traders (like myself), who hold trades of multiple days and weeks, as to qualify for payouts we will have to carefully take partial profits daily throughout a swing trade to ensure we do not realize over 50% profits on one day.

This is frustrating as MyFundedFX already have a very harsh implementation of the red folder news trading rules which disproportionately affects swing traders. My personal option is this is overkill and I would much prefer to see a low leverage Swing account introduced with no consistency rules like FTMO have.

🔥 Follow me on X for more frequent prop firm commentary -https://twitter.com/kierangohil_

🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. A focus on Inflation this week as we have US CPI numbers dropping on Thursday as well as PPI on Friday. Fed chair Powel is testifying before the Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday, so be on guard for headline risk throughout this period.

📈 The Macro View

Nvidia v Bitcoin - A cautionary tale. Another green week for equity markets last week, with the Nasdaq blasting through the 20k level. Nvidia is leading the tech rally and is holding strong, but be warned, Bitcoin has led tech lower many times before and is now 22% down over past 4 weeks. If Bitcoin keeps going lower, how long can this divergence last?

Where is the greed?

Curiously, printing new daily all time highs is no longer enough to get the fear and greed index moving anymore. Despite inflows into everything:

"In the week ended 7/3/2024, bond funds saw US$19.0bn of inflow and equity funds had US$10.9bn. Global funds saw US$4.9bn of inflow, while US funds has US$7.4bn. Flows to European funds slightly improved" (EPFR)

Trump & the Dollar

An interesting correlation. Donald Trump’s polls vs the USD. Something to keep an eye on..

Metals making a comeback. 

Precious metals up big last week. Gold +3%, Silver & Copper both +7%. From JP Morgan:

1. We saw some systematic buying across base metals being a theme this week amid more light discretionary flows.

2. The fundamental narrative has not changed much and the consensus view is quite positive. In a nutshell, AI-driven increase in demand alongside demand from electrification vs an inelastic supply picture.

OK guys, that’s it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the newsletter, stay safe out there and i’ll speak to you next Monday!

Kieran

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