👀 US Election Special!

Hi guys, it’s Kieran! US Election week has arrived and it’s likely to get wild!

Firstly, I have been having severe deliverability issues with my newsletter these past couple of months. Week by week, less of my mails are hitting people’s inboxes and something technically is wrong. I’m not sure if it’s my newsletter platform, domain, Gmail changes, or other, but something is causing major issues.

However, I think I may have pinpointed the issue and have made a change in the backend, so hopefully most of you guys receive this week’s edition! 🤞 

If you ever do not receive it, you can read each week’s edition on my website https://www.proptraders.io. Also please try white-listing my email address and dragging it into your primary inbox if it lands elsewhere, thank you! 🙂 

📢 Prop Firm Industry News

FastTrackTrading continues to be involved in never-ending drama. They continue to chip away at their backlog, paying out $1.5 million over the last 7 days, however their COO Sage has decided to jump-ship only 6 weeks after he left MyFundedFutures to join them. Never a dull moment with this firm 🙃 

Elsewhere, new Futures firms continue to spring up, with many more to come, as the major white label tech providers offer an increasingly simple way to start a firm of this nature.

From Payout Junction, despite the drama, futures firms continue to dominate the 7-day payout leaderboard, with newly-listed futures firm Tradeify also joining the Top 5 this week 🏆️ 

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🕜 Economic calendar

Here are this week’s red folder news events. Tuesday is the start of the US Presidential Elections. This is likely to be a long drawn out affair which may span the next couple of weeks if the result is close. Expect litigation, information campaigns and possibly both sides declaring themselves the winner. It could be a crazy few weeks.

Just to make things even more interesting we have a Fed interest rate decision on Thursday as well, where markets are expecting them to cut rates again. Plan for a lot of surprises and unexpected events if you are trading this week.

📈 The Macro View

Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the prediction markets..

..For the first time since October 9th

The best 3-month period upcoming

Election year or not, November, December, and January are historically the best consecutive three months of the year, up 4.4% on average..

Seasonality in election years

During election years the seasonality effect kicks in slightly later, but nevertheless S&P500 performance is usually strong post election.

The closer the better

Close elections are usually greeted with a relief rally.

November is outstanding in Election years… if you have the stomach for it.

In US election years since 1950, November has consistently emerged as the S&P 500's strongest month on average.

If Trump wins, expect tariff announcements quickly..

European indices, along with China and other EMs, tend to be highly sensitive to tariff announcements.

Fear and Greed - Sentiment no longer Extreme

2 down weeks in the S&P 500 is all it took. Sentiment has reset back to neutral from extreme greed…Almost a perfect reading of 50. Just in time.. 😉 

Positioning..

Positioning on Goldman Sach’s Prime book is still long but not stretched. As we discussed last week, after a 3 month rally we would have expected FOMO to have kicked in by now, but understandably lots of big players are waiting for the election outcome before adding risk. Positioning going into the election is still very long though, so if sentiment flips rapidly, unwinding could be highly disorderly.

OK I think we’re all ready for the week ahead. Let’s see how this thing plays out. US Elections don’t come round very often so enjoy the ride and stay safe out there!

Kieran

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